Highway to hell

So, what do we have new?

1. TLV really buys back its shares! Tough to say if they are not doing a terrible mistake! BRD and SIF5 stopped apparently their unofficial buybacks (because they did not get the expected result?)

2. Suddenly, all the local analysts agreed that eurron will move towards 4,5 ron. As always in a market, when all the participants agree on something, the markets moves immediatly and brutal in that direction. Ron's direction is clear and the trends in currency markets run years, not days.

3. Worldwide bad news popup: Royal Bank of Scotland loose 28 billion euro (that's a bit less than what whole Romania produces in one quarter), automakers worldwide cut production by 50% or so, xmas retail sales fall.

In such a confuse situation, I would say nobody is able to predict how long the recession will last and how deep it will go. The world economy is too big and strong interconnected (comparing with 1929 or even 2001). You cannot compare 1929 world trade with the current situation. World market economy is not anymore limited to US and Western Europe. The world leaders and economists never faced such a huge elephant. It is tougher than ever to turn it arround. And I'm afraid that Obama is better in marketing than in macroeconomis.