Sunday, October 12, 2008

Love is in the air!

Sorry, not love, I wanted to say - PANIC! I see it everywhere. We have 1-2 very important weeks ahead. The global economy will suffer dramatically on the long term, if the trend started in september will continue, even if it will go on some more weeks. I am concerned that we already see panic in the bond markets. The traders are pricing already corporate defaults! If in the equity markets, you are pricing the profits, in the bond markets, you price the default risk. And if you see no bid for 2 year bond from daimler, you start to wonder - are they crazy? do they real mean it that daimler will default?

On another hand, for many, this panic is the signal that we are going soon to reach the bottoms.

from US (Soros) : This is the crisis of my lifetime. I haven't seen anything like it and I won't see anything like it again

from Germany (Spiegel): Wer stoppt den freien Fall des freien Marktes? (Who will stop the free fall of the markets)

from Romania (Razvan Pasol): Insa indiferent de strategia abordata, trebuie sa fim permanent
constienti ca astazi riscurile, perceptiile si conditiile din piata s-au schimbat fundamental fata de cele din trecut. Investitorii care nu realizeaza acest lucru vor face greseli mari in continuare...
Pentru investitorii pe termen lung si foarte lung (cel putin 3 ani), preturile actuale pot fi atragatoare pentru acumulari treptate si esalonate in urmatoarele 12-24 de luni.